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Bankrate polls show that mortgage fees could remain within a narrow range for the rest of 2025, making it difficult for home buyers and homeowners to buy or refinance at a higher rate.
The quarterly voting called on experts to expect 10-year Treasury yields and 30-year mortgage rates was held from March 20th to March 26th, 2025.
Will mortgage fees be lowered even this year?
Of the experts voted, all average 30-year forecasts for 2025 were 6.66%. The forecast ranged from 6.4% to 7.5%.
Most experts also predicted that prices would drop as the years went on. When asked at the end of 2025 where the average 30-year fees were, the average expectation was 6.41%. Overall, expectations ranged from 5.88% to 7%.
Mortgage fees get caught up in a mix of bystanders’ Feds, higher inflation and lower growth concerns.
– Oren Krachkin
National Financial Market Economist
In addition to this year’s 30-year mortgage rate, experts provided long-term forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield. When asked where the yield for the 10-year yield in March 2026 was, the average expectation was 4.24%.
A 30-year mortgage rate is often linked to a 10-year yield. Historically, the spread between the two has been around 1.5-2 points (or 150-200 basis points), but that has been expanded in recent years, exceeding 3 points.
“Mortgage rate spread is likely to continue to rise, ranging from around 200 to 230 basis points,” said Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality. “Like other economic uncertainties, the possibility of a shake-up in the mortgage market may continue to increase its spread. Furthermore, the lack of investors’ presence and the rising risk of recession may continue to increase its spread.”
Tariffs, sustained inflation and development in the job market will continue to affect mortgage rates this year. (Note: Voting was completed before the customs announcement on April 2nd.
Specifically, tariffs could increase inflation and slow the economy, says William Revis’ mortgage Melissa Kohn, who can prevent him from wandering from a narrow range.
Stag outlook – When the economy slows down but prices rise, or even a recession can be a factor.
“Economic stagnation or recession can counterarguably lower mortgage rates, particularly when the Fed responds to economic debilitating due to reduced acceleration rates,” says Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American. “Even the uncertainty alone in the future can make mortgages cheaper.”
“Mortgage fees are caught up in a mix of side-job FRED, higher inflation, and lower growth concerns,” said Oren Klachkin, a financial market economist across the country. “I think it will balance out and this will increase mortgage rates and prevent unlocking housing activities.”
