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How Fed rate decisions move mortgage rates

March 21, 2025 6 Min Read
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How Fed rate decisions move mortgage rates
Homes How the Federal Reserve affects mortgage rates

Images by GetTyimages. Illustrations by Hunter Newton/Bankrate

The Federal Reserve does not fully set mortgage fees, but that decision plays a role in the proportion lenders provide to homeowners. Additionally, mortgage rates can still fluctuate even if the Fed keeps its benchmark rates unchanged. Here’s how the Fed’s monetary policy will affect your mortgage and your ability to buy a home:

How will a suspension of Fed rates affect mortgages?

The US Federal Reserve sets the cost of borrowing short-term loans by changing the federal funding rate. This rate determines how much the banks pay each other in interest to borrow funds from their reserves. This rate is not the same as the rate you pay for your mortgage, but they are related. As the banks’ borrowing costs increase or decrease, the costs you borrow tend to follow suit. Additionally, if the Fed does not change the rate of federal funds, lenders generally encourage them to maintain mortgage rates within their current range.

For example, in 2022 and 2023, the Fed will raise this important interest rate and help calm inflation. However, mortgage interest rates can sometimes appear to ignore the Fed. The Fed cut the rate three times at the end of 2024, but the mortgage rate was relatively high and increased even further.

This should not reflect the federal funding rate rate, the most popular type of mortgage, as fixed-rate mortgage. They track Treasury yields for 10 years. If that goes up or down, the same goes for fixed-rate mortgage rates. Again, the two rates are not exactly the same. Your mortgage rate is higher than your 10-year yield on just an amount called a spread or margin.

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Mortgage fees will also be moved to the next step.

  • inflation: Generally, as inflation recovers, fixed interest rates are also required.
  • Supply and Demand: If mortgage lenders have too many businesses, they will raise the fees to reduce demand. If the business is light, they tend to cut their fees to attract more customers.
  • Secondary mortgage marketwhere investors buy mortgage-backed securities: Most lenders bundle up the mortgages they have undertaken and sell them to investors in the secondary market. If investors are in high demand, the mortgage rate will be a little lower. If investors aren’t buying, the rates could rise and attract them.

The Fed also purchases and sells debt securities in financial markets. This helps support credit flows that tend to have a comprehensive impact on mortgage rates.

How the Fed will affect adjustable mortgages (weapons)

Fixed-rate mortgages dominate the U.S. housing financing scene, but some Americans prefer adjustable mortgages (arms) with a variety of interest rates that reset annually or every six months. The Fed’s movement could have a more direct impact.

More specifically, weapon rates are often tied to secured, continuing funding rates, or SOFR. Increases Fed funding fees can push the SOFR up and down, as Fed fee determinations serve as a basis for savings means. In turn, the arm rate also moves up and down when the rate is reset.

All this means that if the federal funding rate increases, the next adjustment will also increase the arm percentage.

The major Fed makes a move that has affected mortgage rates

In response to the economic impact of Covid-19, the Fed has cut its federal funding rate to nearly zero. The 30-year mortgage rate did not fall to the same extent, but they reached historic lows. Bankrate data shows that the average 30-year mortgage rate bottomed at 2.97% in February 2021.

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The Fed has consistently increased rates since March 2022, bringing inflation to the point that the US has emerged from the pandemic. The federal fund rate reached 5.33% in August 2023, and stayed until the end of September 2024. As fund ratios increased, the 30-year rate was violated by 8% in October 2023.

The Fed cut the rate three times at the end of 2024, but it scored a total of 100 basis points at its September, October and December meetings, but the mortgage rate remains rising, averaging over 7%. Only now, as economic uncertainty increases, 30-year fees have fallen.

What to consider if you are getting a mortgage

Regardless of current Federal Reserve policies, the best way to get the lowest possible mortgage rate is to maintain solid credit, keep your debt low, create as large a down payment as possible, and shop for loan offers.

When comparing interest rates, look at APR as well as interest rates. Some lenders advertise low interest rates, but offset by higher rates. Knowing your APR will help you understand your true all-in-cost.

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